Cascade DAG (v2.0 Calibrated)
graph TD
E1O["Era 1: FCI Opt (8%)"]-->|35%|E2O["Era 2: Bio-Spin (15%)"]
E1B["Era 1: Continuity (82%)"]-->|15%|E2B["Era 2: Gate QC (64%)"]
E1P["Era 1: Stagnation (10%)"]-->|3%|E2P["Era 2: Ceiling (21%)"]
NV["NV-Diamond (15%)"]-->|50%|E3O["Era 3: Hydro (33%)"]
E2O-->|42%|E3O
E2B-->|28%|E3B["Era 3: Std QM (47%)"]
E2P-->|5%|E3P["Era 3: Null (35%)"]
E3O-->|20%|E4O["Era 4: Geometric (13%)"]
E3B-->|12%|E4B["Era 4: Anthropic (45%)"]
E3P-->|2%|E4P["Era 4: Eddington (57%)"]
style E1O fill:#1a3a1a,stroke:#3fb950,color:#3fb950
style E1B fill:#1a2a3a,stroke:#58a6ff,color:#58a6ff
style NV fill:#2a1a3a,stroke:#bc8cff,color:#bc8cff
Era 1 (2026-2036): FCI / Topological QC
Continuity (Gate-Based QC)82%
Stagnation10%
FCI Breakthrough8%
Era 2 (2036-2046): Room-Temp QC
Continuity (Gate QC wins)64%
Bio-Spintronics15%
NV-Diamond Centers15%
Ceiling21%
Era 3 (2046-2076): Foundations
Standard QM persists47%
Hydrodynamic validated33%
Null Results35%
CSL wins (wildcard)12%
Era 4 (2076-2126+): Constants
Eddington's Ghost57%
Landscape persists45%
Geometric breakthrough13%
String absorbs (wildcard)8%
Top Signposts to Monitor
| Signpost | Date | Era |
|---|
| NV center T2 >1s at 300K (gate demos) | 2028 | Era 2 |
| FCI anyon braiding >99% fidelity | 2029 | Era 1 |
| Gate QC >5000 qubits without thermal issues | 2029 | Era 1 |
| Room-temp 2-qubit gate (any substrate) | 2032 | Era 2 |
| CMB-S4 log-periodic detection/null | ~2035 | Era 3 |